For the second week running, thousands of demonstrators confronted heavily armed security forces in daily protests against King Gyanendra's seizure of power last February.

“People are out fighting for their rights,” said Suvash Darnal, leader of the Collective Campaign for Peace (COCAP), a network which includes associations of teachers, doctors, lawyers, journalists, civil rights groups and trade unions.

COCAP estimates that more than 2000 arrests have taken place in the last two weeks. Police frequently use violence to intimidate activists, said Darnal.

“They are systematically beating peaceful demonstrators. Police are using weapons and tear gas but the more violent they become the more our numbers increase.”

Protests against the king intensified when Maoist rebels declared a unilateral three-month ceasefire on September 3, to which the monarchy refused to respond.

Guerrilla war has claimed an estimated 12,500 lives in Nepal since 1996 when rebels took up arms against the Hindu monarchy. King Gyanendra came to power in 2002 following a palace massacre which many Nepalese suspect him of engineering. He abolished Nepal's government and parliament seven months ago, claiming they were incapable of defeating the rebels.

The death toll in the conflict has risen since the royal coup with more than 1500 fatalities reported up to June this year. Maoist rebels now control large portions of the country.

The palace looks increasingly isolated as opposition parties, civil rights groups, and the rebels demand an end to the king's rule.

“The king is under huge pressure,” said Narayan Wagle, editor of Kantipur, Nepal's most widely read newspaper which is openly critical of the monarchy, despite Wagle and his staff receiving threats.

“This is the first time that Nepalese civil society has spontaneously come out into the streets,” he said, pointing to reports of protests spreading to other parts of the country .

Analysts believe that the monarchy has little interest in a return to democracy despite having fewer and fewer friends at home or abroad.

Nepal's largest party, the Nepali Congress, dropped its 60-year-old commitment to the monarchy earlier this month. All opposition parties support the Maoists' demand for UN involvement in brokering and monitoring a ceasefire.

“The king is waiting for something to happen but there will be chaos if he does not act soon,” said Sushil Koirala, a Nepali Congress leader who spent much of last week being arrested for his part in the protests. “He is depending on the army as nobody else will support him.”

King Gyanendra was forced to cancel his trip to the UN General Assembly this month when Western leaders refused requests for meetings. Nepal's neighbour India has spoken out against the coup and encouraged talks between the Maoists and the opposition parties; the US and the UK have suspended sales of military equipment.

Some analysts say there is a sense of déjà vu in Kathmandu. Veteran democracy activists who took part in anti-monarchy demonstrations in 1990 are back on the streets.

“This situation can't last much longer,” said Rhoderick Chalmers, of the International Crisis Group in Kathmandu, which issued a report last week warning of a potentially violent crackdown by the army.

“The international community should be making urgent contingency plans. The monarchy's days of direct rule appear to be numbered . As the pressure mounts there is a real risk of a bloody upheaval.”

According to Chalmers, the Maoist rebels, who are calling for elections and a new constitution, stand to gain the most from a power vacuum.

Nonetheless, the greatest risk of violence is from the king's staunchest supporters, the army, without which he could not have seized power.

“ None of them were very happy with the democracy we had in the 1990s and they've helped to dismantle it ever since,” explained Wagle.

Opposition parties in Nepal have written to the UN Secretary-General, Kofi Annan, asking for support in brokering and monitoring a ceasefire which includes the army. But offers from the UN to help resolve the conflict have fallen on deaf ears in Kathmandu's palace.

“The government is not responding, which means they don't want to talk. They want to solve the problem with guns,” said Koirala.

18 September 2005